Kusho u-Abdullah

Umnotho waseVietnam ungowama-44 ngobukhulu emhlabeni futhi kusukela maphakathi nawo-1980s iVietnam yenze uguquko olukhulu isuka emnothweni womyalo ophakathi nendawo ngoxhaso oluvela emnothweni ovulekile osekelwe ezimakethe.

Akumangazi ukuthi futhi ingeminye yeminotho ekhula ngokushesha kakhulu emhlabeni, enezinga lokukhula kwe-GDP yonyaka elilinganiselwa ku-5.1%, okungenza umnotho wawo ube endaweni yama-20 ngobukhulu emhlabeni ngo-2050.

Sengikushilo lokho, igama elidumayo emhlabeni elokuthi iVietnam isikulungele ukuba ngenye yezindawo ezinkulu zokukhiqiza okungenzeka ithathe iChina ngegxathu elikhulu kwezomnotho.

Ngokuphawulekayo, iVietnam iyakhula njengendawo yokukhiqiza esifundeni, ikakhulukazi emikhakheni efana nezingubo zendwangu kanye nomkhakha wezicathulo kanye nogesi.

Ngakolunye uhlangothi, kusukela ngeminyaka yawo-'80s i-China ibidlala indima yokuba yisizinda sokukhiqiza emhlabeni wonke ngezinto zayo ezinkulu zokusetshenziswa, amandla okusebenza kanye namandla ezimboni.Ukuthuthukiswa kwezimboni kugxilwe kakhulu lapho izimboni zokwakha imishini nezensimbi zithole okuseqhulwini.

Ngobudlelwano phakathi kwe-Washington ne-Beijing ngokukhululeka, ikusasa lamaketango okunikezwayo emhlabeni jikelele lincane.Ngisho noma imilayezo ye-White House engalindelekile iqhubeka nokuphakamisa imibuzo mayelana nokuqondiswa kwenqubomgomo yezohwebo yase-US, amanani entengo yempi yokuhweba ahlala esebenza.

Khonamanjalo, ukungqubuzana komthetho wezokuphepha wezwe ohlongozwayo waseBeijing, osabisa ngokucindezela ukuzimela kweHong Kong, kubeka engcupheni isivumelwano sohwebo esivele sintekenteke sesigaba sokuqala phakathi kwala mazwe amabili anamandla.Ingasaphathwa eyokunyuka kwezindleko zabasebenzi kusho ukuthi i-China izophishekela imboni esezingeni eliphezulu engadingi abasebenzi abaningi.

Lobu bubi, obuhambisana nomjaho wokuvikela izinsiza zezokwelapha kanye nokuthuthukisa umuthi wokugomela i-COVID-19, buyavusa ukucutshungulwa kabusha kwamaketanga okuphakelwa afika ngesikhathi anelungelo lokusebenza kahle ngaphezu kwakho konke okunye.

Ngaso leso sikhathi, ukuphathwa kwe-COVID-19 okwenziwa yiChina kubangele imibuzo eminingi phakathi kwamandla asentshonalanga.Nakuba, iVietnam ingelinye lamazwe ayisisekelo okunciphisa izindlela zokuphambanisa umphakathi futhi ivule kabusha umphakathi wayo ekuqaleni kuka-Ephreli 2020, lapho amazwe amaningi eqala ukubhekana nobunzima nokusabalala kwe-COVID-19.

Umhlaba umangele ngempumelelo yaseVietnam phakathi nalolu bhubhane lwe-COVID-19.

Ithemba laseVietnam njengehabhu lokukhiqiza

Ngokumelene nalesi simo somhlaba wonke esiqhubekayo, umnotho wase-Asia okhulayo - iVietnam - isilungele ukuba yisizinda sokukhiqiza esilandelayo.

IVietnam isiphenduke yaba yimbangi eqinile yokubamba iqhaza elikhulu emhlabeni we-post-COVID-19.

Ngokusho kwe-Kearney US Reshoring Index, eqhathanisa umkhiqizo wokukhiqiza wase-US nokukhiqizwa kwayo okuvela emazweni ayi-14 ase-Asia, kukhuphuke kwaqopha umlando ngo-2019, ngenxa yokwehla ngo-17% kokungeniswa kweChina.

I-American Chamber of Commerce eSouth China iphinde yathola ukuthi u-64% wezinkampani zaseMelika eningizimu yezwe zicabanga ukuthuthela umkhiqizo kwenye indawo, ngokusho kombiko we-Medium.

Umnotho waseVietnam ukhule ngo-8% ngonyaka wezi-2019, ulekelelwa ukwanda kwempahla ethunyelwa ngaphandle.Kulindeleke ukuthi iphinde ikhule ngo-1.5% kulo nyaka.

Isibikezelo seBhange Lomhlaba esimweni esibi kakhulu se-COVID-19 sokuthi i-GDP yaseVietnam izokwehla iye ku-1.5% kulo nyaka, okungcono kunomakhelwane bayo abaningi baseNingizimu Asia.

Ngaphandle kwalokho, ngenhlanganisela yokusebenza kanzima, ukufaka uphawu lwezwe, nokudala izimo ezinhle zokutshala izimali, iVietnam ihehe izinkampani/utshalomali lwakwamanye amazwe, inika abakhiqizi ukufinyelela endaweni yohwebo yamahhala ye-ASEAN kanye nezivumelwano zokuhweba ezikhethwayo namazwe kulo lonke elase-Asia nase-European Union, kanye e-USA.

Ingasaphathwa, ezikhathini zamuva nje izwe liye laqinisa ukukhiqizwa kwemishini yezokwelapha futhi lenza iminikelo ehlobene namazwe athintekile ku-COVID-19, kanye nase-USA, Russia, Spain, Italy, France, Germany nase-UK.

Enye intuthuko entsha ebalulekile amathuba okuthi ukukhiqizwa kwezinkampani eziningi zase-US zisuke eChina ziye eVietnam.Futhi ingxenye yaseVietnam yokungeniswa kwezimpahla zaseMelika iye yazuza njengoba ingxenye yeChina emakethe ishelela - izwe laze ladlula elaseShayina futhi laklelisa abahlinzeki bezimpahla bezimpahla e-US abahamba phambili ngoMashi nango-Ephreli kulo nyaka.

Idatha yohwebo lwempahla yase-US yango-2019 ikhombisa lesi simo, ukuthunyelwa okuphelele kweVietnam e-USA kukhuphuke ngo-35%, noma u-$17.5 billion.

Kule minyaka engamashumi amabili edlule, izwe belilokhu lishintsha kakhulu ukuze libhekelele izinhlobonhlobo zezimboni.I-Vietnam isigudlukile emnothweni wayo wezolimo kakhulu ukuze ithuthukise umnotho ogxile ezimakethe futhi ogxile ezimbonini.

I-Bottleneck yokunqoba

Kodwa miningi imigoqo okufanele kubhekwane nayo uma izwe lifuna ukuhambisana neChina.

Isibonelo, imvelo yaseVietnam yemboni eshibhile esekelwe kubasebenzi ibeka engcupheni enkulu - uma izwe linganyuki ochungechungeni lwamanani, amanye amazwe esifundeni njengeBangladesh, Thailand noma Cambodia nawo ahlinzeka ngabasebenzi abashibhile.

Ukwengeza, ngemizamo emikhulu kahulumeni yokuletha ukutshalwa kwezimali okwengeziwe ekukhiqizweni kwezobuchwepheshe kanye nengqalasizinda ukuze kuhambisane nochungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwempahla emhlabeni wonke, yinkampani elinganiselwe yamazwe ngamazwe (MNCs) enemisebenzi elinganiselwe yocwaningo nentuthuko (i-R&D) eVietnam.

Ubhubhane lwe-COVID-19 luphinde lwadalula ukuthi iVietnam incike kakhulu ekuthengisweni kwezinto ezingavuthiwe futhi idlala kuphela indima yokukhiqiza nokuhlanganisa imikhiqizo ezothunyelwa ngaphandle.Ngaphandle kwemboni yokusekela exhumanisayo ebuyela emuva, kuzoba iphupho eliyisifiso ukubhekelela lobu bukhulu bokukhiqiza njengeChina.

Ngaphandle kwalokhu, ezinye izithiyo zihlanganisa ubukhulu bechibi labasebenzi, ukufinyeleleka kwabasebenzi abanamakhono, amandla okusingatha ukuthululwa okungazelelwe kwesidingo sokukhiqiza, nokunye okuningi.

Enye inkundla eyinhloko amabhizinisi amancane, amancane naphakathi aseVietnam (ama-MSME) - ahlanganisa u-93.7% wesamba sebhizinisi - avinjelwe ezimakethe ezincane kakhulu futhi awakwazi ukwandisa ukusebenza kwawo kubabukeli abaningi.Ukwenza kube indawo enzima kakhulu ezikhathini zezinkinga, njengobhubhane lwe-COVID-19.

Ngakho-ke, kubalulekile ukuthi amabhizinisi athathe isinyathelo sokuhlehla futhi acabange kabusha isu lawo lokubeka kabusha - njengoba izwe lisenamamayela amaningi ukuze lihambisane nejubane laseShayina, ingabe ekugcineni kungaba okunengqondo ukuhambela i-'China-plus-one' isu esikhundleni?